喻园管理论坛2022年第10期(总第779期)
演讲主题: Forward-looking assessment of the GHG abatement cost: Application to China
主 讲 人: 周 迅，英国约克大学环境经济学系助理教授
主 持 人: 蔡 俊，威尼斯欢乐娱人城·首页财政金融管理系讲师
活动时间: 2022年5月25日（周三）16:00-17:30
活动地点：Zoom会议ID：682 280 6096 密码：070629
主讲人简介：
周迅，英国约克大学环境经济学系助理教授。于2019年获得芬兰Aalto University的经济与工商管理博士学位（Economics and Business Administration），并在德国慕尼黑工业大学（TUM）进行了一年博士后研究。研究主要集中于用经济建模和量化的方法解决环境和可持续发展方面的问题。他提出了多种多元量化分析方法（特别是凸分位数回归 Convex Quantile Regression）用以解决非市场化环境产品（准公共品）的定价问题以及一种指数框架来衡量公共交通领域内的低碳转型进展。在多本经济管理、能源、环境国际主流期刊发表多篇论文，例如European Journal of Operational Research、World Development、Energy Economics、Energy Policy、 Applied Energy 等。
活动简介：
Evaluation of abatement costs is critical in setting reduction goals and devising climate policy. However, a reliable forward-looking assessment of climate policy for immediate use remains scarce. Using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces during 1997–2015, we first estimate the marginal CO2 abatement costs using a novel data-driven approach, con- vex quantile regression. Based on the marginal abatement cost estimates and China’s plans regarding carbon intensity reduction and economic growth, we present a forward- looking assessment of the abatement costs for Chinese provinces for 2016–2020. Our main finding is that all the Chinese provinces have a negative abatement cost, which means these provinces can benefit from an increase in the absolute level of CO2 emissions despite the constraint on carbon intensity. The magnitudes of economic benefits exhibit a significant regional disparity because some provinces can increase more CO2 emissions than others. However, there is still costly carbon intensity abatement relative to a counterfactual where the provinces meet their economic growth targets but in the absence of the intensity reduction constraints. Policy implications have been proposed to enhance the efficiency and fairness of climate policy in China.
